Script 1. Complete liberalization

It is obvious, that at complete liberalization of the agricultural market the import of meat products in Russia will increase to the greatest degree, since the given commodity group is under the greatest quotas today (fig. 14.1). The import of meat at the Russian accession to WTO will increase more than twice. The Russian producers provide today not more than 50 % of all meat consumption in the country. It is obvious that the cheap import will put appreciable impact on the Russian meat producers.

The significant import growth will be observed in the case with sugar. Today the sugar consumption in Russia on 75-80 % is provided by the import.

By grain and other agricultural products we can predict the insignificant import growth.

On agricultural export we can observe the growth on all the commodity groups (fig. 14.2).

The significant reduction of trade barriers will cause the export growth. But if we pay attention to the absolute parameters, it will be possible to notice, that the export of agricultural products after the WTO accession will not cover import even on 10 %.

The agricultural production will decrease, the GDP will decrease on 3 %, the investments will be reduced on 0,8 % (fig. 14.3). But,

despite of such negative parameters, at complete liberalization of the agricultural market the general wealth of the country will increase on $1,3 bin. (because of the redistribution of the money resources to the more profitable manufactures).

However, it is necessary to note, that the Script 1 of complete trade liberalization is improbable. It is more theoretical model. In the greater degree it is possible to expect the realization of the Script 2, i.e.partial market liberalization.