Russian accession into WTO and development of the Russian agriculture

The integral part of the WTO negotiations on the markets access is the negotiations on the agricultural problems. Besides tariff aspect, they include also consideration of the Russian policy of the concerning state support of agrarian sector and export subsidizing.

The agricultural negotiation are conducted from the end of 1998, when the initial offers on the Russian obligations in agriculture were submitted. The given document authorized by the Commission of the Government of the Russian Federation on WTO problems fixed the levels of internal support of agricultural producers (so-called Aggregated Measure of Support) both subsidizing of the agricultural products export and foodstuffs in format established by WTO.

It is necessary to note, that AMS includes the measures that have the major influence on trade and manufacture (subsidies for animal and plant production, indemnification of the part of expenses on materials purchasing, preferential crediting, price support, privilege for transportation).

The official declared Russian position submitted in WTO Secretary in March, 2001, was based on the basic period on the level of internal support of agriculture in 1991—1993, and under the export subsidies — on the period 1990—1992. The given position provided:

- AMS — $16,2 bin. (the general average parameter of AMS, that have to be «binded»), with reduction during 6 years up to $12,9 bin;

— export subsidies — average size of export subsidizing that have to be «binded» at a rate of $726 mln., with reduction during 6 years up to $464,7 mln.

There are three-scripts at the WTO access negotiations concerning the Russian agricultural market:

1) the complete liberalization of the market;

2) the partial liberalization of the market (the existing level of the customs tariffs decreases on 36 % within 5 years, i.e. on 7,2 % annually). Such variant is supposed under the WTO charter at the accession of the new country;

3) a situation, when the Russian side will be successful in defending the position with the optimum protection of the Russian agrarian producers on the domestic agricultural market (tab. 14.1).

We created the model, which analyzes the matrix 6x6 (6 integrated regions on 6 integrated commodity groups).

6 regions are Russia, CIS countries, EU, East Asia, NAFTA countries, and others.

6 commodity groups are: sugar, meat (including poultry), grain, industrial goods, services, other agricultural products.

For the analysis of the received results the following parameters were used:

— Dynamics of import and export on each commodity group;

— Dynamics of manufacture on each commodity group;

— Dynamics of the investments and GDP of the country;

— Dynamics of the country wealth.

Using the given model, we shall carry out the analysis of consequences of the Russian accession to WTO for the development of Russian agriculture within the framework of three scripts.