The participation in WTO will require the serious changes in the work of the Russian government and parliament

In this case the uneasy task should be solved: the education

and training of the qualified specialists to work in the government

and parliament.

At accession to WTO the candidate country takes up the certain

obligations. It is possible to allocate two main directions of these

obligations:

1. the obligations on the necessity of unification of the national legislation and practice of its application in conformity to the WTO norms and rules;

2. coordination of the individual obligations during negotiations (the conditions of liberalization of the market access for goods and services).

The basic economic consequences of the WTO accession can be connected to these obligations. The analysis of the WTO accession consequences should be concentrated on:

1) the research of the consequences of the legislation change according to the WTO norms and rules, as concerning the reflection of the general principles, and performance of the concrete requirements in the field of application of the trade policy tools;

2) the research of the consequences of the obligations on the market access for goods and services;

3) the research of the opportunities of use the protection mechanisms for the domestic market in the case of dumping or application of the foreign subsidies.

Thus the consequences of the WTO obligations acceptance can carry both qualitative character, for example the legislation change, and quantitative character, for example manufacture and import dynamics and ratio, which can be observed and estimated statistically.

The analysis of the probable Russian obligations in the field of the legislation change and the application of the trade rules has shown, that the acceptance of the WTO norms and rules will not create the essential negative economic consequences for Russia. The application of Most Favoured Nation Regime can result in some aggravation of the foreign competition on the Russian market. However the probable difficulties will be compensated due to the increase of the transparency, higher predictability of the authorities' actions and the elimination of the unjustified restrictions in the market.

As a whole, the substantial performance of the WTO norms and rules in the given area will not result in basic changes of the trade regulation mechanisms, and also will not cause the significant growth of import and sharp change of the competition conditions of the foreign and domestic goods on the Russian market.

On the contrary, the change of the legislation can become the factor of the increase of the competitiveness of the Russian enterprises because of the elimination of some excessive restrictions, formation of the healthy competitive environment with equal and non­discrimination conditions of enterprise activity, and also increase of the transparency level of the legislation and regulation measures.

The basic precondition of the successful overcoming of the problems in the field of the legislation transformation and use of its advantages in the frameworks of WTO is the effective continuation of the process of the legislation perfection within the framework of the Russian economic reforms. First of all, the excessive administrative pressure on the enterprises should be eliminated and the degree of the legislation transparency should be increased.

The results of the detailed quantitative analysis of the consequences of the market access obligations show that the essential negative consequences are improbable. The key factors, which will determine

the rates of the industry development, will be the factors that are not connected directly to the probable WTO obligations — first of all, the internal economic factors. It is possible to assume, that the probable changes in the conditions of the market access for the foreign goods will not significantly effect on the conditions of competition of the domestic and foreign goods on the Russian market and will not result in the essential negative consequences for the Russian economy.

The given conclusions are fair for all considered basic scripts of the individual obligations acceptance: the establishment of the import tariffs at the «binding» level according to the tariff offers during the transitive period, freezing of the tariffs at the current level with the subsequent reduction according to the tariff offers during the transitive period, the variant with the probable changes of practice of VAT and customs taxes collection.

All these scripts were compared to the base variant, which provides the preservation of the current rates of the customs tariffs:

1) the first script — initial. The economic development is carried out proceeding from the current tariff, budget and tax policy. The script corresponds to the preservation of the existing situation in case of non-accession or accession at the preservation of the current rates of the import customs tariffs;

2) the second script. The economic development was predicted in view of the Russian offers on «binding» of the customs tariff rates. It was assumed that in all cases the opportunities of the tariff increase will be completely used within the framework of the «binded» levels. Also it was assumed the gradual reduction of the tariff rates during the transitive periods on the appropriate positions of the customs tariff;

3) the third script — similar to the second, but without the assumption of the probable increase of the tariffs up to the «binded» levels, i.e. the change of the tariffs was assumed only in the way of downturn.

As a whole the forecasted changes of the trade regime will not cause the more essential changes of the tariff system, than were observed in last 6—7 years. It is obvious, that under the condition of the preservation in the Russian economy the tendency to the economic stabilization and further adaptation of the enterprises to the conditions of the open market economy, the consequences of such changes of tariff system will not be sensitive for the Russian economy.

It is possible to make a conclusion, that in ten years' prospect the factor of the WTO accession will not render the influence on the basic proportions of the Russian economy. Irrespective of the accession scripts, export volume of the industrial products will have some tendency to decreasing. And the least significant this decreasing will be in the case of non-accession (on 3,4 %), and most significant — in the case of accession on the conditions of the base tariff offer (3,6 %). Such tendency is quite natural and it is the consequence of the economic stabilization and economic growth, that is expressed in the activization of the internal demand and expansion of the domestic market volume. Thus the importance of export as the compensating factor of the demand decreasing on the domestic market in the conditions of recession, will be reduced.

The basic results according to the probable consequences of the Russian accession to WTO can be formulated as follows:

1) the factors which can result in occurrence of the significant and obvious negative consequences for the general trend of the economic development are not revealed;

2) the WTO accession will not itself result in the occurrence of the significant economic advantages, which can be expressed in the quantitative form;

3) the basic tendencies and the rates of development of the Russian economy as a whole and the separate branches and sectors both in case of accession and non-accession to WTO will be determined by the same factors, which are not directly connected to the fact WTO accession;

4) the WTO accession will promote the occurrence of the structural, political and other qualitative factors and changes, which can favour to the creation of the conditions for increase of the Russian enterprises competitiveness;

5) the obligations within the framework of WTO legal system do not require the radical change of the legislation and regulation system in Russia;

6) the WTO accession will not require the refusal of development of the regional cooperation within the framework of CIS. However, as a result of WTO accession the CIS countries will receive the additional stimulus to the development of cooperation with non-CIS countries. The legal forms of the regional cooperation will become more precise and determined. In many ways it will

relieve the cooperation within the framework of CIS of the political elements and will require a concrete definition of its economic components. It will result in rationalization of the regional cooperation within the framework of CIS; 7) the foreign trade partners will not receive the significant advantages in comparison with the Russian enterprises. The policy concerning the Russian enterprises and regulation policy on the domestic market will not be more discriminative, than concerning the activity in the global market. This policy will follow the general non-discriminative principles incorporated in the WTO basis.