Of global economic development

Real GDP growth world-wide in 2003 was forecast at 2.4 per cent which was 1.1 percentage

Points lower than the previous year forecast. However, the IMF expects stabilisation of the US

economy in early 2004, with a “firmer pickup” in the second half of the year. Since the US is the

Country, which dragged the world into recession, it makes sense that it should also drag it back out.

Indeed, the consumer confidence indicators of the Conference Board improved in December,

Showing that the American economy may be near the turning point (see Figure 16.2).

Economic prospects for European countries are even less certain. However, the economic sentiment

Indicator for the EU shows a slight recovery in December 2003.

The facts, that industrialized countries are not experiencing crucial structural problems, that

Monetary policies have recently been eased in most countries and that commodity prices are now

At low levels, speak for the possibility of an early economic upturn. Given the December rise in

Business and consumer confidence indicators in the US and in Europe, there is hope that economic

Activity might soon gather momentum.

Growth for the CIS economies is forecast by the IMF at 2.6—2.9 per cent in 2004 — assuming

Chat the fall in commodity prices will not be too drastic, so that investment and consumer expenditures