The legacy of the baby boom in Australia

The period from the end of the Second World War in 1945 until around the mid-1960s has come to be known as the baby boom in Australia and in several other countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the USA.

After the war, these were all relatively prosperous, industrially advanced countries with rapidly expanding economies, enhanced living 1) …………………… and serious labour shortages. In 1961, the total 2) ……………… rate in Australia peaked at 3.6 babies per woman. Twenty years later, it had fallen to half that level and has continued to decline, though at a much slower rate.

Based on assumptions of continued low fertility, combined with the fact that people are generally living longer with each generation, Australia's population is projected to continue 3) ……………… Between 2011 and 2031, baby boomers will make a significant contribution to the number of people aged 65 years and over. During this period, the population aged 65 and over is 4) ………………… to grow from 3 to 5 million. By 2031, all surviving baby boomers - will be between 65 and 84 years of age.

Structural aging has many 5) …………………… for society. In 2031, if not before, 27% of all Australians of 6) ……………… age (18 years and over) will be aged 65 or older. This has implications both for the level of social 7) …………………… that might be required in future and the level of resources that might be available to fund it. For example, as the population 8) ……………… 65 and over increases in size, associated social expenditure on income support and health services can be expected to increase. However, since the 9) ………………… labour force is projected to expand at a slower rate from 2011, it may be more difficult to generate the level of resources and public support needed to maintain a large aged population with an acceptable standard of living and quality of life.

In addition to changing demographics, there are many other factors, both social and economic, which could also have an important 10) ………………… on future levels of social expenditure and how it is distributed. Future rates of economic growth, productivity improvements and taxation levels will affect the level of resources potentially available. At the same time, the 11) …………………… of future older generations, such as labour force participation, level of private income and asset holdings, health status, and availability of family and community support networks, will influence the extent to which resources will be needed for care of the elderly, health, housing and income support.

Changes in social values, attitudes and government policy will also have an impact on the level of support provided for older people, as well as shaping the respective roles of government, private business, community groups, families and individuals in providing it. While much of the current research and policy on ageing tends to focus on the potential 'burden' to society of a large older population, the likely economic 12)…………………… created by a growing market for home help, specialised housing, and financial advice has 65 been largely overlooked. Better educated and more 13) ……………… than their parents' generation, baby boomers are currently an influential market sector and could remain so well into their 14) ………………… years. In addition, as the population ages, it is to be expected that public debate and government policy on ageing will be increasingly influenced by the views of older people.