Ãëàâíàÿ Ñëó÷àéíàÿ ñòðàíèöà Êîíòàêòû | Ìû ïîìîæåì â íàïèñàíèè âàøåé ðàáîòû! | ||
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Çàäàíèå 1. Èñïîëüçóÿ ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå äàííûå ïî ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñåëåíèÿ Ðîññèè (òàáëèöà 3.1), ïîñòðîèòü ãðàôèê ôóíêöèè îäíîãî ïåðåìåííîãî ×èñëÑòàò (Ãîä). Âûäåëèâ ëèíèþ ãðàôèêà, ïîñòðîèòü ðàçëè÷íûå ëèíèè òðåíäà, âûðàæàþùèå çàâèñèìîñòü ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñåëåíèÿ îò âðåìåíè: Âñòàâêà | Ëèíèÿ òðåíäà, èëè, íàâåäÿ êóðñîð íà ëèíèþ ãðàôèêà, ùåëêíóòü ïðàâîé êëàâèøåé ìûøè; â ïîÿâèâøåìñÿ êîíòåêñòíî-çàâèñèìîì ìåíþ âûáðàòü Äîáàâèòü ëèíèþ òðåíäà.
Òàáëèöà 3.1 – Íàñåëåíèå Ðîññèè
Ãîä, t | ×èñëåííîñòü ñòàòèñò., ìëí. ÷åë. | Òåîðèÿ y=k*t+m | C-T | Òåîðèÿ y=a*t^2+d*t+c | C-T | Òåîðèÿ y=a* exp (b*t) | Ñ-Ò | Òåîðèÿ y=c*t^n | C-T |
117,5 | |||||||||
130,1 | |||||||||
137,6 | |||||||||
147,4 | |||||||||
148,5 | |||||||||
147,7 | |||||||||
148,7 | |||||||||
148,4 | |||||||||
148,3 | |||||||||
? | |||||||||
S 1 = | S 2 = | S 3 = | S 4 = |
Ïðîâåðèòü ëèíåéíóþ, ïîëèíîìèàëüíóþ (n =2), ýêñïîíåíöèàëüíóþ, ñòåïåííóþ ëèíèè: Òèï | Ïîñòðîåíèå ëèíèè òðåíäà (ðèñ. 3.1).
à) âûäàòü àíàëèòè÷åñêóþ çàâèñèìîñòü ×èñëåííîñòü (Ãîä): Ïàðàìåòðû | Ïîêàçûâàòü óðàâíåíèå íà äèàãðàììå (ðèñ. 3.2);
á) ïîäñ÷èòàòü ïî ýòèì çàâèñèìîñòÿì ñîîòâåòñòâóþùóþ òåîðåòè÷åñêóþ (òðåíäîâóþ) ÷èñëåííîñòü, çàïîëíèâ ñòîëáöû Òåîðèÿ;
â) íàéòè ïîãðåøíîñòü Ñ–Ò (ðàçíèöó ìåæäó ñòàòèñòè÷åñêîé è òðåíäîâîé ÷èñëåííîñòüþ);
ã) ðàññ÷èòàòü êâàäðàòè÷íûå îòêëîíåíèÿ Si (i =1…4), èñïîëüçóÿ ôóíêöèþ ÑÓÌÌÊÂ.
Ñðàâíèâ ýòè îòêëîíåíèÿ, âûáðàòü ëó÷øèé òðåíä è ïî íåìó îöåíèòü ÷èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ â 2000 ãîäó.
Ïðèìå÷àíèå. Êîýôôèöèåíòû òðåíäîâ âûäàþòñÿ ñ íåäîñòàòî÷íîé òî÷íîñòüþ, è ïîãðåøíîñòü ïðîâåäåííûõ âû÷èñëåíèé ìîæåò îêàçàòüñÿ ñëèøêîì âûñîêîé. Ïîýòîìó ðåêîìåíäóåòñÿ óâåëè÷èòü ÷èñëî çíàêîâ ïîñëå çàïÿòîé â ýòèõ êîýôôèöèåíòàõ. Äëÿ ýòîãî, âûäåëèâ óðàâíåíèå òðåíäà, ñëåäóåò ùåëêíóòü ïî «ãîðÿ÷åé» êëàâèøå (Óâåëè÷èòü ðàçðÿäíîñòü) íà ïàíåëè èíñòðóìåíòîâ Ôîðìàòèðîâàíèå. Íåîáõîäèìîå ÷èñëî çíàêîâ ïîäáèðàåòñÿ îïûòíûì ïóòåì: åñëè ðàñ÷åò S ïî òðåíäîâûì ôîðìóëàì ñ êîýôôèöèåíòàìè, èìåþùèìè n +1 çíàê ïîñëå çàïÿòîé, äàñò çíà÷åíèå, îòëè÷àþùååñÿ íà 1% îò ðàñ÷åòà S ñ n çíàêàìè ïîñëå çàïÿòîé, òî íàéòè S ïî òðåíäîâûì ôîðìóëàì ñ êîýôôèöèåíòàìè, èìåþùèìè n +2 çíàêà ïîñëå çàïÿòîé è ò.ä.
Çàäàíèå 2. Ââåäÿ äîïîëíèòåëüíîå äàííîå: çíà÷åíèå ÷èñëåííîñòè Ðîññèè â 1998 ãîäó – 146,2 ìëí ÷åë., óòî÷íèòü ýêñòðàïîëÿöèþ, èñïîëüçóÿ òîëüêî äàííûå 90-õ ãîäîâ. Ñðàâíèòü ïîëó÷åííûé ðåçóëüòàò ñ ðåøåíèåì, ïîëó÷åííûì â çàäàíèè 1, è ñäåëàòü âûâîäû.
Çàäàíèå 3. Ïî òàáëèöå 3.2 ïîñòðîèòü ëèíèþ ïîëèíîìèàëüíîãî òðåíäà, íàèëó÷øèì îáðàçîì (ïî ìàêñèìàëüíîìó çíà÷åíèþ êðèòåðèÿ äåòåðìèíàöèè R 2) îïèñûâàþùóþ äíåâíóþ òåìïåðàòóðó â ã. Òîìñêå äëÿ îäíèõ è òåõ æå ìåñÿöåâ äâóõ ðàçíûõ ëåò. Ïðîñìîòðåòü ïîëèíîìû âñåõ âîçìîæíûõ ñòåïåíåé, ïðåäëàãàåìûõ Excel. Ïîñòðîèòü ãðàôèê èçìåíåíèÿ çíà÷åíèÿ R 2 â çàâèñèìîñòè îò ñòåïåíè ïîëèíîìà.
Îïðåäåëèòü ìàêñèìàëüíóþ (ôóíêöèÿ ÌÀÊÑ), ìèíèìàëüíóþ (ôóíêöèÿ ÌÈÍ) è ñðåäíþþ (ôóíêöèÿ ÑÐÇÍÀ×) òåìïåðàòóðó ìåñÿöà.
Ñ ïîìîùüþ ôóíêöèè Ñ×ÅÒÅÑËÈ îïðåäåëèòü, ñêîëüêî äíåé â ìåñÿöå äåðæàëàñü òåìïåðàòóðà íèæå ñðåäíåé.
Ñèíòàêñèñ ýòîé ôóíêöèè:
Ñ×ÅÒÅÑËÈ(äèàïàçîí;êðèòåðèé)
Òàáëèöà 3.2 – Äíåâíàÿ òåìïåðàòóðà â ã. Òîìñêå â 1997–1999 ãã. (ïî äàííûì À.Ñ. Ìèíüêîâà)
1997 ã. | Ìåñÿö | |||||||||||
Äåíü | ßíâàðü | Ôåâðàëü | Ìàðò | Àïðåëü | Ìàé | Èþíü | Èþëü | Àâãóñò | Ñåíòÿáðü | Îêòÿáðü | Íîÿáðü | Äåêàáðü |
–19 –17 –12 –3 –2 –15 –9 –18 –22 –25 –20 –13 –12 –20 –20 –5 –2 –3 –15 –20 –6 –4 –4 –14 –6 –11 –14 –10 –10 –4 | –6 –15 –20 –12 –9 –8 –6 –12 –6 –6 –5 –4 –11 –7 –4 –1 –1 –2 –3 –11 –20 –16 –16 –16 –10 –6 –1 | –4 –1 –1 –1 –1 –2 –3 –1 | –3 –4 –3 –1 | –4 –5 –5 –1 –14 –15 –7 –5 –2 –4 –21 –24 –15 –9 –25 –30 –23 –10 –15 –31 –30 –26 –17 | –14 –9 –19 –28 –26 –9 –19 –22 –12 –17 –19 –13 –9 –22 –23 –25 –31 –20 –10 –11 –17 –9 –20 –29 –23 –12 –18 –15 –6 –19 –22 |
Ïðîäîëæåíèå òàáëèöû 3.2
1998 ã. | Ìåñÿö | |||||||||||
Äåíü | ßíâàðü | Ôåâðàëü | Ìàðò | Àïðåëü | Ìàé | Èþíü | Èþëü | Àâãóñò | Ñåíòÿáðü | Îêòÿáðü | Íîÿáðü | Äåêàáðü |
–32 –23 –13 –12 –13 –20 –20 –33 –30 –28 –27 –32 –29 –25 –27 –31 –24 –18 –16 –13 –19 –18 –15 –14 –15 –10 –12 –16 –13 –14 –17 | –15 –12 –3 –10 –20 –14 –15 –16 –20 –29 –21 –10 –6 –3 –11 –16 –17 –12 –7 –5 –2 –10 –5 –4 –2 –4 –1 | –6 –5 –3 –1 –1 –10 –15 –22 –1 –1 –2 –2 –8 –3 –4 | –2 –3 –2 –1 –1 –2 –2 | –2 –8 –1 –7 –10 –5 | –7 –1 –1 –7 –12 –10 –15 –13 –12 –15 –9 –16 –17 –9 –17 –22 –20 –22 –25 –31 –34 –30 –23 | –19 –22 –21 –16 –15 –4 –8 –13 –7 –9 –6 –10 –5 –2 –8 –10 –12 –5 –7 –6 –4 –3 –4 –1 –8 –20 –17 –13 –2 –5 |
Ïðîäîëæåíèå òàáëèöû 3.2
1999 ã. | Ìåñÿö | |||||||||||
Äåíü | ßíâàðü | Ôåâðàëü | Ìàðò | Àïðåëü | Ìàé | Èþíü | Èþëü | Àâãóñò | Ñåíòÿáðü | Îêòÿáðü | Íîÿáðü | Äåêàáðü |
–4 –17 –25 –23 –25 –17 –14 –19 –14 –6 –12 –15 –17 –6 –9 –16 –20 –17 –8 –5 –8 –8 –31 –30 –36 –27 –21 –15 –9 –17 –18 | –6 –8 –5 –2 –12 –9 –5 –2 –4 –4 –12 –16 –8 –11 –5 –6 –10 –7 –6 –3 –1 –7 –4 –2 | –5 –10 –15 –23 –20 –22 –20 –15 –20 –13 –10 –13 –15 –13 –15 –10 –16 –13 –15 –5 –2 –11 –17 –12 –5 | –1 –2 –2 –12 –6 –4 | –2 –5 –7 –5 –13 –4 –2 –5 –8 –19 –25 –27 –25 –22 –19 –19 –17 –14 –12 –6 | –7 –5 –4 –1 –6 –4 –5 –3 –13 –4 –2 –5 –4 –2 –1 –3 –12 –14 –17 –7 –1 –1 –5 –11 –10 –6 –19 –26 –36 –39 |
Äèàïàçîí – ýòî ìàññèâ äàííûõ, â êîòîðîì íóæíî ïîäñ÷èòàòü ÿ÷åéêè, óäîâëåòâîðÿþùèå êðèòåðèþ. Êðèòåðèé îïðåäåëÿåò, êàêèå ÿ÷åéêè íàäî ïîäñ÷èòûâàòü, è çàäàåòñÿ â ôîðìå ÷èñëà, âûðàæåíèÿ èëè òåêñòà.
Çàäàíèå 4. Èñïîëüçóÿ Ìàñòåð äèàãðàìì, ïîñòðîèòü òåìïåðàòóðíîå ïîëå îäíîãî âûáðàííîãî ãîäà (òèï äèàãðàììû – Ïîâåðõíîñòü, âèä äèàãðàììû – Êîíòóðíàÿ äèàãðàììà).
Äàòà ïóáëèêîâàíèÿ: 2014-11-03; Ïðî÷èòàíî: 1451 | Íàðóøåíèå àâòîðñêîãî ïðàâà ñòðàíèöû | Ìû ïîìîæåì â íàïèñàíèè âàøåé ðàáîòû!